Eskimos in search of elusive first win
Football Betting Lines
07/28/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their worst start in nearly half a century, the Edmonton Eskimos again take aim at their first win of 2010 when they entertain the British Columbia Lions on Friday night at Commonwealth Stadium.
Edmonton, which hasn't won the Western Division title since putting together a three-year run between 2001-2003, probably won't be raising another trophy anytime soon since the club is off to an 0-4 start for the first time since 1965. Despite having the most overall victories (591) of any club in the CFL since 1945, the Eskimos are currently suffering from a five-game slide dating back to last year.
Rick Lelacheur, president and CEO of the Eskimos, has made it clear that losing is no longer an option for this once proud team and that being embarrassed as they have is simply not acceptable. It remains to be seen what Lelacheur has in mind, but he has stated that the entire franchise is under scrutiny and changes could extend throughout the organization if improvements are not immediately made.
Last week the Eskimos were ripped apart by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers who not only scored 21 points off Edmonton turnovers, but they came up with a 47 points overall in the 26-point victory, and all of that with a backup quarterback manning the action for the home team.
Edmonton QB Ricky Ray had a mixed bag when it came to his results, converting 18-of-25 pass attempts for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but he also tossed two interceptions. Early in the fourth quarter the Eskimos pulled Ray in favor of backup Jason Maas, but the move did little to change the lopsided outcome as Maas converted only 1-of-9 passes for 29 yards.
Receiver Fred Stamps, who had a combined 332 yards receiving in the two games leading up to the Winnipeg meeting, caught just two balls for 22 yards and watched his per catch average take a dip down to 16.2 yards after the outing.
Finding a sustained offense has been a problem for the Lions so far this season as well, the team now riding a three-game skid and sitting in third place in the Western Division standings.
Ahead by a score of 20-10 in the fourth quarter, the Lions appeared to be on their way to evening their record on the season, but instead both the offense and defense cracked and allowed Toronto to fight back for the 24-20 decision at the Rogers Centre last Friday.
Even though Casey Printers could have made the start for the Lions last week against Toronto, BC opted to go with Travis Lulay and considering it was the youngster's first-ever CFL start he did pretty well. Lulay hit 26-of-40 passes for 330 yards, with 58 of those coming on a desperation heave at the gun, but he was also tabbed for a pair of costly interceptions, one of which was returned 41 yards for the game-winning score.
Jamal Robertson helped shoulder some of the load for the Lions as he gained 54 yards and scored two majors on 12 carries coming out of the backfield, but the team as a whole was credited with a mere 76 yards rushing on 18 attempts, less than half what the BC defense gave up (161 yards) to the Lions.
Oddly enough, even though BC has just one win in four tries this season and allowed a victory to slip away last week, the program actually moved up two spots in the latest power rankings to fourth, while Edmonton advanced to seventh only after Hamilton suffered such an ugly loss to Montreal on the road.
The Lions made a couple of moves off the field this week as they cut ties with kick returner Robert Jordan, but added quarterback Mike Reilly to the practice squad. Reilly was one of the most accomplished QBs in Division II history while at Central Washington, but his addition to the club doesn't make clear who it will be making the start for the Lions this week, whether it will again be Lulay or if Printers is ready to return.
No matter who it is under center for the Lions, the fact remains that the passing attack is not all that it could be, completing just 59.4 percent and having accounted for three touchdowns, compared to four interceptions. Then again, Edmonton is having similar issues with the same TD and INT numbers through the air at this stage.
Edmonton has fared somewhat well against opposing quarterbacks, allowing for the fewest passing first downs (40) in the league thus far, but if the run defense doesn't put up a strong enough front the Lions might not have to put the ball in the air as much anyway.
In terms of the all-time, regular-season series between these two teams, dating back to 1949 the Eskimos maintain an advantage of 99-68-4. The Lions won the first meeting of the season back on July 4 with a 25-10 decision, avenging a lopsided 45-13 setback to Edmonton late in the 2009 campaign. The clubs also have an October 16 date set for British Columbia.
The pressure coming down on the Eskimos is almost palpable, but just because Lelacheur is going to be over everyone's shoulder doesn't mean Edmonton is ready to make a drastic change. BC has already shown that it can defeat the Eskimos, even if it was with Printers at the helm, but expect the outcome to be much the same this week.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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